NIFTY stages a surprise pulling back above 5900 after testing swing supports? Will it manage to hold?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 30^th Apr

NIFTY FUT – For the 30^th we had discussed that  above 5930 odd trading levels also the BEARS LAST STAND point NIFTY FUT will go on to test the levels of 5960-65

This is what we had wrote: “NIFTY FUT will again face immediate hurdle at 5930-35 odd trading levels again and clearing that level will ensure that NIFTY FUT will go onto to test the higher trading levels of 5960 odd and higher levels of 6000.”

Now in the morning session markets witnessed a gap up and tested the 5960 levels which was the immediate target above 5930. But once that level was not sustained it moved downwards and the same levels acted as a resistance ensuring markets failed to clear that for most part of the day. We did take a trade infact above 5960 and had to book at 15 points hit there.

We also mentioned that the TREND DECIDER of the day is 5915 levels meaning a movement below that will be with a negative bias. This is what happened once that level was broken. We took the short trade exactly at that point too. First the target of BULLS LAST stand point was tested at 5885. Let us also review what we had wrote for the downside trade:

“On the downside a breach of 5885 odd levels will ensure that this trading range is breached on the downside and NIFTY FUT can again go onto to test  the 5860 levels and lower Immediate trading per se 5910-15 will form as the TREND DECIDER”

Once that level was broken NIFTY FUT made an exactly low above 5860 levels doing bigtime on the downside trades all the way from 5910 levels. This is also the points where markets surprised the analysts pulling back sharply to again test 5900 and 5930 levels and closing above 5900 levels.

NIFTY FUT managed a sharp pull back to close above 5900 levels? What is in store next.

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NIFTY FUTURE – 2nd  April  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT – If we look into a larger time frame and look at the week’s candle so far we will see that it has traded within a 100 points range of 5860-5960 since the gap up created on the 25^th.  Funny part is this is almost the same trading gap that we witnessed on the downside move and this gap was created on the 18^th March.

Swing wise since we are now trading in this 100 points range it will be critical to see how NIFTY FUT moves from here. A break of the range on either side will almost decide the next leg of the momentum. Until that happens as we always advice it is better to look for a pull back trade within the range extremes and a break out trade outside the range.

Most analysts were jumping onto shout shorts and few even coundnt hold their guns and seem to have announced that within the market session on the 30^th itself. Instead of waiting to get a confirmation with the daily candle close.  We will have to see how far they are correct. For our traders though swing wise 5860 will hold the fort. This is the same level market tested and sharply pulled back as well.

NIFTY FUT will have the trend decider at 5910-15  levels and  trading above that will always show a tendency to pull back. Below that it can  test the levels of 5885-90 again a breach of it this time may just see a serious slide. Real concern for the BULLS though will be a breach of 5860 odd levels.

On the upside NIFTY FUT will again test the upside swing levels of 5960 once it manages to clear 5930-35 levels. This might be a good level to take a pull back trade with lower stops and reversals above it for higher trading levels.

Trading levels for the day:                                                                                                   

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5930-35 sustaining above which it will target 5960, 5995
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY -------5905-10
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5885-90
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5865, 5830

Trading Review of 4th March and Market Analysis for 5th March

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 4^th Mar

NIFTY FUT –  Pretty much a nonevent day where markets traded within the TREND DECIDER and the BULLS LAST stand point and the BEARS LAST stand point. Without giving away much of a clue where the future direction of the market is headed.
NIFTY FUT made an open low near below the  BULLS LAST stand point. And after the first hour managed to pull back and close near the BULLS LAST stand point near 5700 levels. This level acted pretty much as the pivotal pointr instead because of the gap down. And once NIFTY FUT manage to sustain above that zone it went on to try and attempt 5730 odd levels.
We mentioned that any rise to 5760 is going to be resisted and this is why we saw any serious lack of momentum in the markets.
At the same time we also discussed that NIFTY FUT options data suggest that 5700 is going to offer some support and supply and that was pretty much evident as markets managed to hold onto to that zone.

Now that we have managed to pull back and close above the 5700 levels, what is in store for the Index in the coming session? Read our Analysis for the next session.

NIFTY FUTURE – 5^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT –    Managed to give a close above 5700 levels that pretty much keeps the trading levels intact for in the same lines that we discussed in the previous session with few areas to watch out for.
Firstly we saw a close above the crucial 5690-5700 levels this proves that there is some supply near the zone.
At the same time the put accumulation for 5700 increased too meaning that there has been more puts written at this level.
Based on the above two data 5690-5700 will now form as the immediate support level on the downside. But if NIFTY FUT manages to trade below it we can see a serious downside.  Still the trend decider for swing trading will continue to remain at 5670 odd zones.
On the upside immediate hurdle remains at 5725-30 zones  and trading above that NIFTY FUT can go onto attempt the 5760 odd levels. This as discussed will remain as the swing decider for the markets, If we can see any movement and sustenance above that we can safely assume that we have atleast found a short term bottom.

We have also posted the options accumulation chart just to indicate the relative increase in accumulation of the 5700 PE at these levels.

NIFTY OPTIONS

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains neutral and will emerge as positive once NIFTY FUT manages to trade above 5730. The short term indicator will turn negative below 5690. The mid term momentum indicator remains negative and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT holds below 5760 odd trading levels.


Also let us look at some Very long term charts just to understand where we stand from a long term point of view and where we may be headed in coming months. The charts posted here are the weekly NIFTY FUT charts.
Two quick take away from the charts, 1. We have closed below the weekly trend line that started with 4760 levels – Trend line highlighted in Yellow.
2. The low made is exactly at 61.8% retracement of the charts. At 5650 odd levels.
Based on this data a trend reversal can only happen if we manage to trade a minimum of 5855 levels. And on the downside a breach of 5655 can lead to a test of long term swing retracement levels of 5440 levels.
As of now the picture doesn’t look exciting for the Bulls. Do leave your feed back on the analysis of the charts and your views

NIFTY FUT WEEKLY CHARTS 5TH 2013  MAR VIEW

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5760-65 sustaining above which it will target 5790, 5820
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5725-30
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5695-5700
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5665,5635