NIFTY closed at a crucial Pivotal point. Are you ready to trade another low risk high potential trade opportunity?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 15th Mar

NIFTY FUT –   For Friday we wrote that
“Now combining these with the chart and the price point analysis . NIFTY FUT has immediate resistance at 5960 levels and trading above that can head to 5900-6000 resistance zones.

On the downside immediate support now comes at 5920 and trading below that can go onto test 5890-5900 levels where markets should find some support.”
Markets made a high in the morning just around that level at 5967 and failed to sustain near that zone. Once we saw a confirmed failure there it drifted downwards. Once 5920 was broken in the first session itself it went on to test the 5890 zones as well. Infact we saw a low marked below 5890 but a failure to close below that still maintains that zone as a bottom.
Now how could we have traded the day with the levels and analysis presented a day before:
Bears Last stand point was given at 5965, where exactly morning high was made, Trend decider was give at 5920 zones, hence there was a short opportunity below trend decider for safe traders and  risky traders could had gone short well in advance keeping morning highs as a SL and reversal above it.

Markets now failed to sustain the momentum, but managed a close near 5890, how to trade the coming sessions and week. Read our analysis for the next session

NIFTY FUTURE – 16^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed just around 5900 levels with a low of 5880 in the previous session, also knowing the fact that 5890 is a crucial swing trend decider for us the immediate support levels are established here at 5880-90 zones.
Let us also quickly review the options data charts to see if it presents any different view?

NIFTY OPTION Data-15th March

The options data suggests that there is now a strong build up at 5700 levels and then followed by 5800 levels.

Readers will also recall that we had a very good pull back swing trade at 5800 region from where we witnessed a good rally. On the upside we have good CE accumulation at 6000 and 6100 levels

Based on these two data we may conclude that another round of shorting can emerge if NIFTY FUT breaks the 5880-5900 zones .

Below 5880-90 we have support emerging at 5855 , 5825 and a strong swing support at 5805 levels, where we have a price point and option data support. So that level can be used as a Pull back trading zone with stops and reversal below 5800.

On the upside we will again see NIFTY FUT behaving strongly if we are able to clear the 5925 levels , we may see NIFTY FUt go all the way upto 5950 odd zones again. Swing resistance remains at 5965-75 levels. If we are able to clear that on a sustained basis we may see a strong pull back  and a good short covering.

Trading strategy wise: We would want to look for short trades below 5890 zones and long above 5925 . also it will be prudent to try contrarian trades at extremes of 5830 on the downside and 5960 levels on the upside.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are neutral now and negative below 5880 and positive above 5925. The mid term momentum indicators are positive now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5860 levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5920-25  sustaining above which it will target 5945,5960,6000

POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5885-90

POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5855-60

Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5825,5805

Trading Review of 4th March and Market Analysis for 5th March

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 4^th Mar

NIFTY FUT –  Pretty much a nonevent day where markets traded within the TREND DECIDER and the BULLS LAST stand point and the BEARS LAST stand point. Without giving away much of a clue where the future direction of the market is headed.
NIFTY FUT made an open low near below the  BULLS LAST stand point. And after the first hour managed to pull back and close near the BULLS LAST stand point near 5700 levels. This level acted pretty much as the pivotal pointr instead because of the gap down. And once NIFTY FUT manage to sustain above that zone it went on to try and attempt 5730 odd levels.
We mentioned that any rise to 5760 is going to be resisted and this is why we saw any serious lack of momentum in the markets.
At the same time we also discussed that NIFTY FUT options data suggest that 5700 is going to offer some support and supply and that was pretty much evident as markets managed to hold onto to that zone.

Now that we have managed to pull back and close above the 5700 levels, what is in store for the Index in the coming session? Read our Analysis for the next session.

NIFTY FUTURE – 5^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT –    Managed to give a close above 5700 levels that pretty much keeps the trading levels intact for in the same lines that we discussed in the previous session with few areas to watch out for.
Firstly we saw a close above the crucial 5690-5700 levels this proves that there is some supply near the zone.
At the same time the put accumulation for 5700 increased too meaning that there has been more puts written at this level.
Based on the above two data 5690-5700 will now form as the immediate support level on the downside. But if NIFTY FUT manages to trade below it we can see a serious downside.  Still the trend decider for swing trading will continue to remain at 5670 odd zones.
On the upside immediate hurdle remains at 5725-30 zones  and trading above that NIFTY FUT can go onto attempt the 5760 odd levels. This as discussed will remain as the swing decider for the markets, If we can see any movement and sustenance above that we can safely assume that we have atleast found a short term bottom.

We have also posted the options accumulation chart just to indicate the relative increase in accumulation of the 5700 PE at these levels.

NIFTY OPTIONS

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains neutral and will emerge as positive once NIFTY FUT manages to trade above 5730. The short term indicator will turn negative below 5690. The mid term momentum indicator remains negative and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT holds below 5760 odd trading levels.


Also let us look at some Very long term charts just to understand where we stand from a long term point of view and where we may be headed in coming months. The charts posted here are the weekly NIFTY FUT charts.
Two quick take away from the charts, 1. We have closed below the weekly trend line that started with 4760 levels – Trend line highlighted in Yellow.
2. The low made is exactly at 61.8% retracement of the charts. At 5650 odd levels.
Based on this data a trend reversal can only happen if we manage to trade a minimum of 5855 levels. And on the downside a breach of 5655 can lead to a test of long term swing retracement levels of 5440 levels.
As of now the picture doesn’t look exciting for the Bulls. Do leave your feed back on the analysis of the charts and your views

NIFTY FUT WEEKLY CHARTS 5TH 2013  MAR VIEW

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5760-65 sustaining above which it will target 5790, 5820
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5725-30
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5695-5700
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5665,5635