Applying price point analysis to capture massive gains in NIFTY consistently

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 19th Mar

NIFTY FUT – we couldn’t had got more correct than this. Yesterday we had clearly discussed since the daily candle was a small range the trading decision is much easier to take a break down or a break out trade outside the trading range.
At the same time we had mentioned 5825 as the TREND DECIDER of the day and 5800 levels as the BULLS LAST STAND point. Look at the market reaction once 5820 and then 5800 was cracked, all our downside targets were done in a single hourly candles. We had  mentioned a downside target of 5760 and 5735.
Look at the charts , NIFTY low made exactly there at 5736.
Again dear friends this is not a rocket science but simple price point analysis considering multiple trading swings and range in view.
An additional confirmation was received with our momentum indicators, readers will recall that both the short term and long mid term momentum indicators turned negative yesterday giving enough proof that markets are trading weak.
Today we took a short just as per our blog below 5830 levels and captured massive gains all the way to make it a terrific day. Banknifty was another stellar performer giving nearly 300 points in gains in a single session.

NIFTY FUT wise 5800 was  a critical swing support level that got breached and now puts the entire retracement upmove to be questioned.
How are the markets expected to perform in the coming sessions, what are the critical support levels to watch out in this zone. Read our detailed analysis for the next session

NIFTY FUTURE –20^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed below the critical swing support zones of 5800 and tested another support zones in the downmove, how is it poised now.
Readers will recall we presented a very visual trading system called as the Guppy charts, made famous by famous investor trader daryl guppy few sessions back, it will be now wise to review the charts all over again and see how the markets are placed.

NIFTY FUT Swing Charts-19th March

As is evident from the charts that we the long term averages went negative once we cracked 5880 levels and now at the same time we see a significant divergence of the long term and the short term EMA.

We also have a retracement placed at 5750 zones. This is exactly where markets closed today.

So how do we use these data points and plan our trades for the next session. Well based on the price point analysis we see that NIFTY FUT wise 5750 zone will form as the immediate trend decider of the next day. Trading above which and keeping  the divergence in mind NIFTY FUT will try to retrace back to 5790-5800 zones where it is expected to face resistance.
On the downside NIFTY FUT will face some supply till 5735 and will become significantly weak if that trading range is broken. Below 5735 NIFTY FUT can drift down to  5705 levels and below that to previous lows made at 5670 odd trading levels.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are  trading negative and will continue to hold so until it trades below 5800 levels. The mid term momentum indicator are also negative now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades below 5860 levels

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5795-5800  sustaining above which it will target 5820,5860
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5705,5765

NIFTY closed at a crucial Pivotal point. Are you ready to trade another low risk high potential trade opportunity?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 15th Mar

NIFTY FUT –   For Friday we wrote that
“Now combining these with the chart and the price point analysis . NIFTY FUT has immediate resistance at 5960 levels and trading above that can head to 5900-6000 resistance zones.

On the downside immediate support now comes at 5920 and trading below that can go onto test 5890-5900 levels where markets should find some support.”
Markets made a high in the morning just around that level at 5967 and failed to sustain near that zone. Once we saw a confirmed failure there it drifted downwards. Once 5920 was broken in the first session itself it went on to test the 5890 zones as well. Infact we saw a low marked below 5890 but a failure to close below that still maintains that zone as a bottom.
Now how could we have traded the day with the levels and analysis presented a day before:
Bears Last stand point was given at 5965, where exactly morning high was made, Trend decider was give at 5920 zones, hence there was a short opportunity below trend decider for safe traders and  risky traders could had gone short well in advance keeping morning highs as a SL and reversal above it.

Markets now failed to sustain the momentum, but managed a close near 5890, how to trade the coming sessions and week. Read our analysis for the next session

NIFTY FUTURE – 16^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed just around 5900 levels with a low of 5880 in the previous session, also knowing the fact that 5890 is a crucial swing trend decider for us the immediate support levels are established here at 5880-90 zones.
Let us also quickly review the options data charts to see if it presents any different view?

NIFTY OPTION Data-15th March

The options data suggests that there is now a strong build up at 5700 levels and then followed by 5800 levels.

Readers will also recall that we had a very good pull back swing trade at 5800 region from where we witnessed a good rally. On the upside we have good CE accumulation at 6000 and 6100 levels

Based on these two data we may conclude that another round of shorting can emerge if NIFTY FUT breaks the 5880-5900 zones .

Below 5880-90 we have support emerging at 5855 , 5825 and a strong swing support at 5805 levels, where we have a price point and option data support. So that level can be used as a Pull back trading zone with stops and reversal below 5800.

On the upside we will again see NIFTY FUT behaving strongly if we are able to clear the 5925 levels , we may see NIFTY FUt go all the way upto 5950 odd zones again. Swing resistance remains at 5965-75 levels. If we are able to clear that on a sustained basis we may see a strong pull back  and a good short covering.

Trading strategy wise: We would want to look for short trades below 5890 zones and long above 5925 . also it will be prudent to try contrarian trades at extremes of 5830 on the downside and 5960 levels on the upside.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are neutral now and negative below 5880 and positive above 5925. The mid term momentum indicators are positive now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5860 levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5920-25  sustaining above which it will target 5945,5960,6000

POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5885-90

POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5855-60

Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5825,5805

NIFTY Top exactly at our swing target. What’s next? How to trade at these levels?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 8th Mar

NIFTY FUT –    For Friday we had clearly discussed that until NIFTY FUT manages to hold above 5860 levels , BULLS are to be in control and it was advisable to look for pull back long trades.

For the upside we wrote that NIFTY FUT has a swing hurdle zone at 5915 levels and above that targets given were on 5940 and 5975 levels.

NIFTY FUT in the morning managed to hold and trade above the 5915 levels our BEARS LAST STAND point of the day and it went on to give another strong swing day giving away good gains for both intra day traders and swing traders as well.

The purpose of publishing the trading references a trading guideline is two fold. 1. We  analyze the markets and plan for the trades without any bias or sentiments just based on price levels, swing momentums, this helps us form an idea and to document it. 2. Intraday traders were genuinally lacking a definite guide and reference to develop their trading plan and approach. The trading levels and other price or chart information shared helps to streamline one plan and keep a disciplined approach to trading.

This is to help people develop as traders. Understandably at times some traders  gets into wrong positions and everyone commits mistakes but to overcome them is to write down where we went wrong and see the factors or decisions that we overlooked. This will help to continually improve and that is the objective.

Our swing traders had a very good trade for the past few months when we correctly got the top write at 6120 and asked traders to take swing shorts near that zone.  Though jan feb was not a fantastic intraday trading month as volatility was abysmally low.

At that time we had written that the historical Weekly ATR is at a all time low and we will see increased movements sooner than later ( remember our post on where we said NIFTY weekly ATR Is now 136).

Then we mentioned that 5650 is a strong swing support and even after the budget day crash we mentioned that as well. From there on we have moved on to a gains of near 350 points , this time around it was a merryride for both intraday traders and swing traders.

Any mid term swing trader who has been trading with a systematic approach would have capitalized this move both ways. The whole point of driving this is stick to your rules and trading plan and markets will give opportunity sooner than later.

Now that NIFTY is near 5975 our swing target levels, where can it go next? Also some of our investment long positions are now sitting in near 5% plus gains. Should we exit them? Read out more on this at our analysis for tomorrow.

                                                                                                                     
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 NIFTY FUT traders went long above 5915 and gains massive gains all the way till 5970 just as per our blog. Banknifty fut traders too has a blast going long in the opening session above 12104 and booking gains all the way till 12240 odd levels. Are you looking for complete guided trading without any hassle?.. Are you still worried about your trade entries? Are you missing on these turning points entries? How about looking at our points guaranteed services. …... Where to take the next trade? Did you catch the move in the right time?.... Are you still guessing where to trade? Subscribe to our premium calls and leave your trade entry and exit worries to us. 

NIFTY FUTURE – 11^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY Fut has now pulled back near 350 odd point form the lows without a major pause, while all this sounds good we need to again strap up and plan for the possibilities at these levels. Just  the other day we mentioned that on a swing basis NIFTY FUT If manages to take out 5915 has the potential to go on and test 5975 levels. This was exactly done on Friday. Now we also mentioned that 5975-6000 is a congestion zone and this will form as the next strong hurdle.
Both from an intraday and swing point of view this will be the next levels to watch out for Only if NIFTY FUT manages to take out that level it has a very high potential to test the highs of 6120 on a swing basis and probably take that out too.
From an intraday point of view NIFTY FUT if managed to trade above 6000 levels can go on to target 6040-50 zones where we may see a pause.
On the downside  NIFTY FUt will find some support in all dips to 5940 levels and only a breach of that can pull it down to test lower levels. Down side targets below 5940 emerge at 5910  and 5870 odd levels.

Many of us who bought equity positions near 5650 odd levels today are standing in massive gains and some of the index stocks have moved up anywhere from 5-7% from the lows in a very short span. So it a time to book gains? Well it depends on a few factors, one what percentage of your equity investment  capital were you invested in stocks, if it is anywhere higher than 30% , then you should.
But if its  30% of your capital since the buying price was low and today the stops are far away we may want to hold these trades and see how far can we go on long term swing basis. Remember this is for stock investment positions that we advised people.

For futures or swing trading positions, we would sit, lock in the gains  out here and wait for 6000 to be taken out and  re enter above it or look for dips.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5940 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5860 zones.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5995-6000  sustaining above which it will target 6025,6040,6090
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5970-75
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5935-40
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5910,5880

Dow Jones Worth In Gold- The real value of New highs

Dow jones closed near 14400 levels this Friday. If we go and look at long term Dow Jones charts it is now trading well above it 2008 and 2012 highs.

Strong US markets are one of the strongest indications of a good global recovery. In a way better than expected jobs data this Friday on US markets was also no surprise if we put these facts together.

Strong Bullish sentiments is also echoed from the fact that markets are now discounting European concerns, take for example recently volatility due to news emerging out from Italy.

 

While a strong bullish year for global markets is no doubts on the cards, this is a good time to take a skeptic look and do some valuation analysis for the markets over a long term. Presenting here some food for thought to you dear friends the long term charts of Dow Jones versus gold.

DOW JONES Versus GOLD-- Long term Cyclical Charts

The charts reveal a completely different data and point of view. Based on this we see that actual valuation when compared to gold, a global benchmark is way lower than previous top.

The pair ratio made a all-time high in 1999 near 42 levels and is now trading at about 8.

So what are the inferences from this chart for a long term investor. And also to judge where global markets may be headed.

 

·         Firstly the value is not what all meets the eye, market valuations from a real worth perspectives are way away from the top. So always referring to old levels from valuations point of view will mean the same thing.

·         Secondly,if we see the trend line levels of this charts. We are out there to test a long term top created a level of 8.87. If this is taken out we may be seeing a lot of money moving out of Bullion and ploughing back into equity markets.

·         The pair is also now about to test a descending trend line a move above that will confirm a breakout and a long term bullish markets in true sense.

·         The Ratio has created a bottom near 6.3 levels and this will be something worth to watch out for in coming months. A beak of that bottom can signify another correction cycle for the markets.