Applying price point analysis to capture massive gains in NIFTY consistently

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 19th Mar

NIFTY FUT – we couldn’t had got more correct than this. Yesterday we had clearly discussed since the daily candle was a small range the trading decision is much easier to take a break down or a break out trade outside the trading range.
At the same time we had mentioned 5825 as the TREND DECIDER of the day and 5800 levels as the BULLS LAST STAND point. Look at the market reaction once 5820 and then 5800 was cracked, all our downside targets were done in a single hourly candles. We had  mentioned a downside target of 5760 and 5735.
Look at the charts , NIFTY low made exactly there at 5736.
Again dear friends this is not a rocket science but simple price point analysis considering multiple trading swings and range in view.
An additional confirmation was received with our momentum indicators, readers will recall that both the short term and long mid term momentum indicators turned negative yesterday giving enough proof that markets are trading weak.
Today we took a short just as per our blog below 5830 levels and captured massive gains all the way to make it a terrific day. Banknifty was another stellar performer giving nearly 300 points in gains in a single session.

NIFTY FUT wise 5800 was  a critical swing support level that got breached and now puts the entire retracement upmove to be questioned.
How are the markets expected to perform in the coming sessions, what are the critical support levels to watch out in this zone. Read our detailed analysis for the next session

NIFTY FUTURE –20^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed below the critical swing support zones of 5800 and tested another support zones in the downmove, how is it poised now.
Readers will recall we presented a very visual trading system called as the Guppy charts, made famous by famous investor trader daryl guppy few sessions back, it will be now wise to review the charts all over again and see how the markets are placed.

NIFTY FUT Swing Charts-19th March

As is evident from the charts that we the long term averages went negative once we cracked 5880 levels and now at the same time we see a significant divergence of the long term and the short term EMA.

We also have a retracement placed at 5750 zones. This is exactly where markets closed today.

So how do we use these data points and plan our trades for the next session. Well based on the price point analysis we see that NIFTY FUT wise 5750 zone will form as the immediate trend decider of the next day. Trading above which and keeping  the divergence in mind NIFTY FUT will try to retrace back to 5790-5800 zones where it is expected to face resistance.
On the downside NIFTY FUT will face some supply till 5735 and will become significantly weak if that trading range is broken. Below 5735 NIFTY FUT can drift down to  5705 levels and below that to previous lows made at 5670 odd trading levels.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are  trading negative and will continue to hold so until it trades below 5800 levels. The mid term momentum indicator are also negative now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades below 5860 levels

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5795-5800  sustaining above which it will target 5820,5860
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5705,5765

NIFTY broke through the 5900 levels? Where are markets headed. Take a detailed look at NIFTY levels

NIFTY broke through the 5900 levels? Where are markets headed. Take a detailed look at NIFTY levels

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 13th Mar

NIFTY FUT –  broke through the 5890 support levels and closed on the lower side of the day near 5860 odd levels.
The first sign of that weakness was confirmed in the morning session when NIFTY FUT traded below our  BULLS LAST STAND point of the day at 5915 levels. Again the importance of those levels are firmly emphasized on an intra day. Once markets failed to clear that level trading weak was imminent.
Then we hit the swing support zones of 5890 levels which got sustained for a while and was eventually broken we did try that pull back trades at 5905 levels with stops and reversal below  5888 , which got stopped out eventually when that level broke.
On the downside we marked the targets of 5890 and 5860 after the break of our BULLS LAST STAND point at 5910.
Check the charts for the market low made – low made at 5858 bang on at our pre market levels
Hope traders were able to stick to the levels and enjoyed  a decent trade.
While we had marked that 5860 and 5830 are strong swing support zones but the pace of the fall now calls it to be  tested.
Is this the right time to take a contrarian pull back opportunity or we take a break down short? Read the strategy at our next post.

NIFTY FUTURE – 14^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed at a crucial juncture of 5860 odd levels. This is a pivotal juncture for the markets and around 30 points here and there the market momentum and direction will be tested on a mid term basis.
It will be a good time to also see have a quick glance of how the options data is shaping up at these levels.
The options data suggest there is a significant build up of puts at 5700 and 5800 levels and at the same time the CE build up is more around                 5900 and 6000 levels
Based on that data 5900 may form as an immediate hurdle in recent times. At the same time we may see a support zones around 5830 based on price point analysis and 5800 based on option data points.

So for swing trade wise this zone of 5830-5900 for this series may prove to be the range bound zone and will be better off to try for pull back trades within this zone.

On at intraday basis 5860 will form as the immediate trend decider and trading above or below it will decide the next course of action for the day. On the upside if NIFTY FUT manages to hold above 5860 may show a pull back to 5890 zones.
On the downside a break of 5860 can lead to a test of levels of 5845-5830 zones and lower levels upto 5800 .

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are negative now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades below 5900.. The mid term momentum indicators are  will swing to negative below 5860 and positive above 5925 levels..

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5990-95 sustaining above which it will target 5990,6025,6040
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5855-60
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5825-30
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5800, 5765

Markets back at 5900, Where is it headed Next? Read the Detailed analysis

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 7^th Mar

NIFTY FUT –   Another fantastic day in a row , in a rare occasion we have see the markets giving such strong moves in a such a short span and that’s pretty welcome amongst the swing trading and intraday trading community.
Yesterday we mentioned that NIFTY FUT has key levels at 5825 and trading above that can hit the swing levels of 5860 levels.
Look at how the markets spanned out once NIFTY FUT managed to sustain above that level( Also our TREND DECIDER of the day) it managed to challenge our BEARS LAST STAND point at 5860 levels. This also was our swing hurdle as well. To quote exactly what we wrote “At the same time on the upside if now NIFTY FUT manages to break above the 5860 levels that will be deemed as a strong reversal sign for the market.”

Look at the strong movement witnessed once that level was cleared , NIFTY FUT blasted to hit the next trading levels of 5900 in no time at all.
We has also mentioned that there is a congestion zone at 5910 levels this is exactly where the rally paused. Hope traders took the trading opportunity to book in massive gains. We had a solid run with our smartsignals too, as that is designed to catch volatility and strong trends. Clocking in more than 800 points in total in last few trades.
But that’s  not what the beauty is, the satisfaction more comes from the fact that we, our readers and traders  stuck to our convictions on both occasions when common sentiment challenged our belief and we collectively reaped in good gains.
During Budget day common sentiment called for a rally but we went short just as per our trading levels. And Recent up move in last few days when common sentiments said markets are in a bearish phase we stuck to basic technical analysis and levels and again came out winners. It’s a pat in the back for all of us.

NIFTY FUT closed at a very crucial  level of 5900 levels. Its time now to sit back and  introspect a longer time analysis again and take an informed decision for the next course of the market. Read our detailed analysis for tomorrow.

NIFTY FUTURE – 8^th  Mar  Trading Guide

Before we start out I  just want to again drill this thing again within our traders that when we talk about technical analysis there is no place for emotions. Its an informed decision based on probabilities, patterns and risk reward ratios. We don’t have to go to common sentiments to find an opinion.
Sample this, When markets were making highs in Jan 2013, did any analyst come out and project that 6120 is a hurdle? We wrote about that level long before it tested , check our blog posts.
When we saw the budget day crash and a few days before it too. We kept on writing that 5630 zones are strong swing support and they did deserve low risk contrarian entries. Did any analyst ask to do that after the budget? We stuck our neck out and did that.
And again the point is not that we are correct all the time, but an informed pattern based decision was taken rather than following common emotions. Secondly the conviction to trade the plan was equally important.

Coming back to NIFTY let us quickly review how the options data have changed over the week. Here is a snapshot of options data early this week  and the snapshot of options data today for comparison

NIFTY OPTIONS SNAPSHOT-5TH MARCH

NIFTY OPTIONS SNAPSHOT-7TH MARCH

If we review the two options charts now there are three evident take away: The 5700 and 5800 PE accumulation have increased significantly justifying the fact that they are emerging as support zones from a series perspective and thirdly the 6000 CE accumulation has decreased too, meaning that the hurdle in that space may be decreasing but still there in  a significant manner. So does 6000 also mean anything else?

Let us go back and see the weekly charts one more time, we reviewed the charts some time early this week.

NIFTY FUT WEEKLY CHARTS-7TH MAR

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5860 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5790 zones.

As we see from the weekly charts, this week charts by taking out the 5860 levels have completely engulfed the previous week, Although the volumes are still lower on the pull back candle by a significant margin.

Second cause of concern is that if we review the long term trend line that we see which was breached  4 weeks back. The trend line resistance now also stands at 6000 levels.   Combing these few observations 6000 emerges as a strong swing hurdle now and we need to watch out for that in the coming sessions in a swing basis on the upside.

On an intraday basis now, NIFTY FUT faces immediate  resistance at 5915 levels and clearing that wil go on to target 5940 levels. In case NIFTY FUT manages to trade above 5940 as well we can see a test of the swing resistance zones of 5975-6000 levels. Which will be a definite hurdle to be watched out for. In case we manage to hit that level, it will be advised to lock in gains and wait for the next leg of market directions.

On the downside NIFTY FUT will face good immediate support at 5855-60 levels and until it trades above that level all intra day corrections will be bought into. In case that level is breached NIFTY FUT will slide down quickly to test the 5830 odd zones.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5860 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5790 zones.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5910-15 sustaining above which it will target 5940,5975
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5860-65
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5825-30
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5800, 5760






                                                                           

Review of 19th Feb and Update for 20th Feb 2013

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 19^th Feb

NIFTY FUT – A perfect day trading with the levels again, more importantly markets moved and showed some consistency rather than hovering around in a range bound manner.
Few sessions back when analysts where yelling shorts and correction all over the internet we had clearly discussed that 5860 and below that 5830 are strong supply and support zones and irrespective of what people say we should look for starting to invest in that zone. Today we have witnessed a near 100 points pull back in the index futures from those levels and hope traders had used that and did had good gains.
For daily trading levels we had mentioned that 5890 will hold the key, markets marked an intraday low exactly there and pulled back smartly from those levels . Also the BEARS LAST STAND point ( break out level) was mentioned as 5925 levels and long traders had an ample chance to go long at those levels and book good gains.

Let us review how it worked on charts as per the trading plan that we shared few sessions back.

NIFTY FUT -TRADING STRATEGY ANALYSIS

Once it was confirmed that the TREND DECIDER is respected and markets pulled back from that level. There was a low risk trade entry from there and gave an opportunity for contrarian traders.
As per the charts we again had an opportunity to go long above 5925 the BEAR LAST stand point giving away good gains there too.

NIFTY FUT exactly made a top near 5960 levels and closed strong , so what is up for NIFTY FUT in the next trading session. Have we crossed the crucial hurdle yet? Let us review all that in our analysis for the next session

NIFTY FUT traders today had a blast going long near 5905 and booking gains all the way till the close of the day making it a big trading day… …. Are you looking for complete guided trading without any hassle?.. Are you still worried about your trade entries? Are you missing on these turning points entries? How about looking at our points guaranteed services. …... Where to take the next trade? Did you catch the move in the right time?.... Are you still guessing where to trade? Subscribe to our premium calls and leave your trade entry and exit worries to us. 

NIFTY FUTURE – 20^th Feb  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT – managed a strong close near 5960 zones and also managed to hold onto the 5890 levels for two consecutive trading session. What is more important to look out for in the coming session is to see if NFTY FUT can manage to move above and trade above the levels of 5960 for the next session.
This will form as the immediate hurdle in the next session and trading above that level can ensure NIFTY FUT goes on to test 5985 levels and above.
On the downside 5925 levels will prove as the immediate support levels and if it manages to hold that level it will be prudent to look for pull back trades below that NIFTY FUT may trade weak and again go on to test the  5900 levels.
In case 5890 cracks this time it will confirm a false top and a break down can be much more severe. But at this time it looks like we may be set to test the zone of 5985-6000. That will form as the next acid test for BULLS above 5960 levels.
Momentum indicator wise now the short term momentum indicators are trading positive and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5920. Mid term momentum indicators are also trading positive now and will continue to hold so above 5890 zones.

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Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5925-30    sustaining above which it will target 5965,5995
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5890-95
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5860-65
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5835,5810

Detailed analysis also posted at www.powertrades.blogspot.com

We at Powertrade believe A Successful Trade is a result of the finest blending of absolute money management skills along with time tested analytical skills refined with conviction. So if you need expert hand holding advisory services to make money trading these levels Register @www.powertrade.co.in and subscribe to our Premium Packages which are loaded with Points Commitment Challenge.

Review of 31st Jan and Update for 1st Feb 2013

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 31^st   Jan

NIFTY FUT –  How do we sum up today’s close. And the close for the series. Let us know what your one liner is for the day and the series. We would sum it up as an expected but not anticipated close. Markets pretty much closed in an equally dull fashion as it had traded now nearly for 1-2 months in a row.
For all those who love statistics look at the charts posted here. We have posted a weekly charts view of the NIFTY FUT. This month it has nearly traded within a 100 odd point range with a little leeway here and there.
Also check out the weekly ATR. It has hit an abysmal low of 136 odd values. For those who are interested in records this is the lowest ATR value since May 2006 for NIFTY FUT. Isn’t it a  surprising fact. Specially given that NIFTY FUT just traded in 3700-3800 range back then.

See the charts below to believe it:

NIFTY FUT WEEKLY CHARTS-JAN END 2013

AS for the daily trading levels  we had marked as 6075 as the BEARS LAST STAND point of the day.In the morning markets opened near that level and moved  downwards. It exactly again found some support near our TREND DECIDER of the day  and managed to hold on to that for good part of the day. This was again a good indicator that market is staying range bound as the prices just oscillated between the two trading levels.
We took a good pull back trade based on the levels.but eventually closed positions seeing lack of move in just marginal trades


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NIFTY FUT traders went long near 6045 and closed the positions near 6052 once it failed to clear the 6070 levels on the upside. A range  bound trading session with no side to pick from on either side. …....… Are you looking for complete guided trading without any hassle?.. Are you still worried about your trade entries? Are you missing on these turning points entries? How about looking at our points guaranteed services. …... Where to take the next trade? Did you catch the move in the right time?.... Are you still guessing where to trade? Subscribe to our premium calls and leave your trade entry and exit worries to us. 

NIFTY FUTURE –1^st Feb  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT –  closed the trading session near 6037 levels. This was both a close of the trading month and also a close of the trading series as well. Based on the current close and pattern what are the levels that emerge out?
Firstly have you checked the charts and also seen that unique level where the weekly ATR has drifted down to near 134 trading levels. This is the lowest ATR value since about May 2006… Also that holds even more important as that point of the trading range was just about 60% of the current range near 3700-3800 levels.
If we believe at a thumb role of reversion in the markets this will mean that more or less we should see a decisive move sooner than later now. Will Feb be the month? Well  we shouldn’t get into predicting it. Rather the advice is follow the trading levels and take trades as per your trading rules and systems.Because when the move will happen it will just kick of as a normal trading signal.
Also to avoid whipsaws and losing out on gains one can keep booking profits in quick interval until NIFTY FUT breaks out of the trading range.
As of now immediate support remains at 6025 range on the downside and below that the swing support continues to remain at 5990-6000 levels.
On the upside immediate hurdle comes at 6065-75 range and above that if we can clear that zone we should see a move till 6095. If markets manage to move above 6105 this time we should see a serious chance of taking  the swing hurdles of 6120 range.

Swing indicator wise the short term indicators are  neutral now and will be positive above 6075 and negative below 6025. term momentum indicators are also neutral at this trading level, they will swing to positive above 6120. This will be negative once NIFTY FUT trades and moves below 5995 levels.

As for trading today the levels are as follows:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6065-75   sustaining above which it will target 6095,6115,6135
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6025-30
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5990-6000
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5960,5940

Detailed analysis also posted at www.powertrades.blogspot.com

We at Powertrade believe A Successful Trade is a result of the finest blending of absolute money management skills along with time tested analytical skills refined with conviction. So if you need expert hand holding advisory services to make money trading these levels Register @www.powertrade.co.in and subscribe to our Premium Packages which are loaded with Points Commitment Challenge.