Trading Review of 1st March and Market Analysis for 4th March

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 1^st Mar

NIFTY FUT –  Despite the volatility  we got it spot on for Friday. Its always difficult trying to analyze a potential move after a big day like Thursday.  Specially for intraday traders to trade after a big day comes with higher risks of volatility as the range of trade has expanded.
For Friday we warned traders to be careful while taking shorts and only look for it on pull backs. These are the cases when the trading levels again come handy.
We wrote that the TREND DECIDER is near 5695 levels and in the morning session once the markets managed to hold above the TREND DECIDER our immediate action was to either wait to look for it to break or a potential short on rise if at all.
NIFTY FUT then went on to hit our BEARS LAST STAND point and also go above that level as well to make a top just below our swing resistance levels of 5760.
Let us review what we wrote about the crucial 5760 levels --- “NIFTY FUT faces immediate hurdle at 5730 levels and trading above that can again move up to test the 5760 odd levels. This will form as the immediate swing trade decider and only a move above that can ensure a mid term pull back Till that range is cleared all pull backs may be shorted”

This same trade was followed to perfection where NIFTY FUT made a top just below it and managed to close within the trading range. Hope traders capitalized on this and managed a decent trade.

Also an interesting thing to note is NIFTY FUT just closed at the BEARS LAST Stand point. This becomes important as 5730 was also the swing support zones we discussed before the break down eventually happened. Let us review going forward how to trade the markets in the coming sessions.

                                                                                                                     
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NIFTY FUTURE – 4^th  Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT –   closed near the crucial swing levels of 5730. This was the previous break down levels that we were watching out for. At the same time if we go and analyze the daily candles formed, the Daily candle formed today was an inside candle  and was well within the trading range of the previous session.

The fact that the high made was also within 5760, makes that as the clear next trading range to watch out for, in case 5760 is cleared on a sustained basis we may see a good strong move to test the 5900 zones all over again.
From an immediate day trading perspective it is imperative to watch out for 5730 as the trend decider and if NIFTY FUT manages to trade below it the bias will be negative.
On the downside a break of 5690-5700 will ensure the that down move continues and NIFTY FUT goes on to test the lower levels created on 28^th Feb  that is near 5760, and below it to test the swing support levels of 5630 odd zones.
So in summary safe traders or short term swing traders may look to take a trade of break of either side of the range created on Friday that is long above 5760 zones and short below 5690 zones.
Risky traders or scalpers can created positions on either side of 5730 or  try pull back trades with 5690 stops  and reversal below or 5760 stops and reversals above.

Since it is the start of the series and also one of our friends suggested to have  a look at the options data here we present to you an options charts data of the current series, this one single snapshot tells us where the options accumulations are.

NIFTY OPTIONS VIEW- MARCH SERIES- WEEK1

As we see with the chart where the Put value are plotted in green and the Call values are plotted in Red. Since accumulation mostly happens on written options it is the puts which will tend to form as support and calls that will tend to form as resistances and hence the color coding.
With this we see that the maximum Put accumulation is at 5700 strike price, this additionally implies that the 1. A clear of 5760 can see a strong move above and  2. That a break of 5700 will be resisted and once broken we can see a strong downside surge again.

We also see a call highest call accumulation is at 6100 levels and a that will form as the swing resistance for this series , which is also in a way obvious as the swing top was made at 6120


Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5760-65  sustaining above which it will target 5790, 5820
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5730-35
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5695-5700
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5665,5635