How to trade the Expiry Day. Low risk trading ideas for Expiry day

NIFTY FUTURE- Review and Trading Analysis-27th June

NIFTY FUT –   Firstly well isn’t market following a pattern pretty much in line with what we discussed. Refer to our blog charts previously posted. We had marked that the downside targets are near 5580 zones. NIFTY swing wise just marked that low for two consecutive sessions but yet managed to hold onto it on a closing basis. It will be critical to watch out how markets trade around that level and it can provide a very low risk trade opportunity on either side for swing traders. But advise would be to watch out for the expiry to pass by until we see a convincing move.

Since we are looking at expiry the volatility provides some fun trading ideas specially keeping options positions in mind. So let us review what are the option as of today.

The best way to analyze option data is just to have a look at the option accumulation chart. One picture gives in multiple data points in a single view.

June 2013 series-Option OI Data-26th June

<charts attached at www.powertrades.blogspot.com>

So the most evident thing with this chart is the huge CE accumulation at 5700 zones . Also we see significant and distributed PE accumulation at 5500 and 5600 levels. Now our expiry strategy needs to be treat this accumulation has to hold for tomorrow and use price point analysis to find out potential trading zones

Based on this our boundary points more or less are 5570-80 zones on the downside and 5700 on the upside. So to take a low risk entry one should look at sharp pull back trades in rise with stops above 5700 levels and also pull back on upside to trade for a close above 5600 levels. Probably with 5550 as stops. This trade can be taken in sharp dips.

Dear remember expiry day is risky hence risk lower than your usual quantity. Even if you don’t get favorable levels its perfectly fine to stay out and watch. Trade safe

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5620-25  sustaining above which it will target 5655,5675
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5575-80
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5550-55
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5530,5505

Elliot wave and price projections at its classical best. What are the next projections?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review and Trading Analysis-21st June

NIFTY FUT –  marked the classical  Elliot wave and price projection reversal in the recent downmove.

While many traders would had earned trading shorts it is to take a worthy note on how Elliot wave projections gave an entry signal at much higher levels and how our traders capitalized on them big time.

Readers will recall that we posted the charts few days back (Refer to our blog chart analysis for 17^th June). We mentioned that NIFTY FUT has completed wave 3 and was marking a retracement on wave 4.

The beauty was that the wave 4 topped out exactly at 61.8% retracement levels giving an much earlier entry before the crash happened.

Yes the FED stand on QE made sure that global markets tanked big time and Indian markets were no exception too. Yes this help cover a huge range of wave 5 move in a single session 2. No denying the fact.  What we were expecting as a gradual downside move was largely covered today.

Now how price point analysis confirmed this. Refer to the same blog post. We had mentioned that while NIFTY FUT witnessed a strong island reversal pattern we mentioned that 5870 is the key hurdle on upside and only a clear of that will confirm as strong upside reversal.

Markets during the course of the week made a high of 5867.5; exactly below that level and failed to clear that zone on the upside. This confirmed a respect of wave 4 retracement too when 5835 was breached on closing basis.

Now where are markets headed from here? As we say one picture is worth many words and they always act as a ready visual reference to your trading.

NIFTY FUT CHARTS-20TH JUN CLOSING- SWING AND INTRADAY PROJECTIONS

Now Fut closed exactly at the first target of wave5 at 5640 trading levels. Below that the next swing projection is 5580 and if that is breached on a sustained basis we are looking at hitting near 5400 trading levels.

On the upside  On the upside swing wise immediate hurdle will be 5690-5700 trading levels and a clear of that will indicate some sort of reversal only.

From an intraday point of view 5640 will also act as a TREND DECIDER and sustaining below it shorts will be active again. Intraday reversal zone is 5670 levels  on the upside. On the downside expect support to emerge out at 5580 levels and a breach of that will result in fresh shorts.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 567075  sustaining above which it will target 5695,5730
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5635-40
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5600-05
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5580,5535

NIFTY Fut Indicates Strong Reversal Pattern on daily Charts. Detailed Price point and Elliot wave analysis

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 14 ^th June and Update for 17^th June

NIFTY FUT – marked a strong reversal pattern on the daily charts, typically a island reversal pattern where we witnessed a isolated low being made on the previous day.

With this reversal NIFTY FUT managed to pull back and close at near 5800 levels. Readers will recall from previous posts that 5760 was a strong swing level to watch out for on either side for BULLS and BEARS and this will continue to remain so. On Friday once markets moved above 5760 we saw a strong a continued upmove for the rest of the day as this level then acted as a support.

Now At this level there are two conflicting views as a swing traders and where markets may go from here. One an island reversal typically signals a change in trend and a new trend on the other side. Two at the same time we have seen a strong downmove and typically should see some resistance at retracements.

Check the chart  below which combines price points Elliot waves and Fibonacci retracement analysis to find the next trading level to watch out for.

NIFTY FUT CHART ANALYSIS-16 JUN

As it stands on the upside 5835-40 levels and above that 5870 will be the key hurdles and if we manage to clear that we can see a strong swing reversal pattern confirmation.

On the downside 5750-60 will be the swing support zones and a breach of that can signal a false reversal and lead to strong downside in coming sessions or weeks.

Based on this my idea to trade for a swing trader would be to look to long in retracements with SL and reversal below sustained moves of 5750 or a swing break out long with SL around 5800 if we manage to clear 5870 levels.

From an intraday point of view it is advisable to use the trading levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5835-40  sustaining above which it will target 5865,5890
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5800-05
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5755-60
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5730,5690

NIFTY FUT cracks 5855. Fulfils Downside swing targets. Trading strategy here

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 11^th June

NIFTY FUT – Yesterday we had mentioned that 5890 was the key trading level to watch out for and that’s the level below which we have been asking to initiate short trades.

For two previous sessions this level was breached but managed to hold on with a closing basis. But the beauty of price point analysis was this level intact as trading level  and hence trades had to be taken.

Look at what we wrote:

POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5885-90

Once markets opened and traded below this level it was evident shorts would be the flavor of the day.  Since we saw NIFTY testing 5860 which was the swing level identified. Shorts were taken below that level and the result was precise trading and terrific swing moves getting done in a single trading session.

Apart from the profit the key take away from the trading has been despite two failed breakdowns it called for the trade to be taken for the sheer discipline of trading.

NIFTY had one of the most massive falls in the recent memory, cracking by near 200 points from the previous session and at the same time closing below the crucial 5800 trading levels.

Another important thing to note that we have been encouraging traders is to diversify their trading across multiple underlyings. This not only de risks the capital but also lets you at times hold positions on both ends. Like we capitalized on HCLTECH in longs since past few sessions and at the same time with shorts in ICICIBANK. This as a trader at times helps spread your risk.

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NIFTY FUTURE- 12^th Jun Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT straight way drifted sharply once 5855 was breached to test the trading levels of 5800 and even closed below it. The fact that it closed on the lowest point of the day signifies that the BEARS are not done yet and may have some steam to go.

Where are we headed from here, where is support likely  to emerge.  On the downside next key support is at 5765 trading levels. This is somewhere we should see a pause and profit booking. If that level is breached we can see a further round of downside to test lower levels. This can lead to a test of the 5690 odd trading levels on the downside.

On the upside it is important for NIFTY FUT to move above and trade above the 5805 levels to show some resilience. But at this point all rise to 5835-40 levels should be shorted . That is the immediate level to be watched out for and would be good point to initiate long trades above that.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5835-40  sustaining above which it will target 5865,5890
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5800-05
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5760-65
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5730,5690

NIFTY FUT fails to clear our swing Hurdles. Project NIFTY Fut movement with accurate price point analysis

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 10^th June

NIFTY FUT – Despite of a positive opening due to global cues market could not stay positive for more than 30 min of opening. As the market fell below the TREND DECIDER as mentioned at 5935 it just couldn’t  manage to hold above the level to make the positive trend. Market made a free fall to get some support at primarily at 5901 then finally getting support at 5890 levels at first half of the day, which we yesterday mention as the BULLS LAST POINT OF THE DAY.

Huge selling was been noticed during the last 45 min of trade when Rupee made its all time low of 57.95 per dollar. Nifty today made a lower low to 5867 but BEARS couldn’t manage to kept it below 5890 on a closing basis.

 We had discussed yesterday that 5855 trading level will be the key trading on a swing basis.

 For three consecutive sessions despite managing to breach below 5890 NIFTY has managed to pull back and close above that level.  Will we see a pull back from here or a breach of the swing trading levels. Read our analysis for the next session

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NIFTY FUTURE- 11^th Jun Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT despite having managed to breach the trading levels of 5890 have managed to close above that in three consecutive sessions. The trading levels of 5850-55 are critical levels on the downside to watch out for.

On an immediate basis 5885-5890 still remain the support level but if break below we can see selling pressure intensifying. In that case NIFTY Fut which can move it again to the 5860 level where again we can see some support to emerge.  Breaking of 5855 can move the market to the low of 5830 level.

   On the upside 5935-5940 remain the immediate resistance on a swing basis and a long trade can be taken above it  with tight stops for the 5960 and higher levels where we can see some sort of resistance. Above 5965 level we may again see on a intraday move to 5990 then to 6005 level. Else this level of 5935 or at 5965  might provide good contrarian pull back trading opportunities.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5955-60  sustaining above which it will target 5990,6030
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5920-25
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5885-90
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5860,5835

NIFTY FUT Holds to 5890. Closes Below 5935. Where is it Headed?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 7^th June

NIFTY FUT – volatile yet a good day of trading if managed to trade with the trading levels. The TREND DECIDER was mentioned at 5955 and above that target was given at 5990 and NIFTY marked a high just at 0.05 below that level before falling all the way.

The worrying part for BULLS here is that despite managing to trade above 5955 the pace of the fall from that highs displayed tremendous pressure from the BEARS. We had discussed that 6005 and 6035 will be the key trading on a swing basis.

This was another trading opportunity for the strong hearted contrarian players which would had yielded terrific results. 

For two consecutive sessions despite managing to breach below 5890 NIFTY has managed to pull back and close above that level. So what is in store for the markets in the coming session. 

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NIFTY FUTURE- 10^th Jun Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT despite having managed to breach the trading levels of 5890 have managed to close above that in two consecutive sessions. Also that fact that we marked a low above 5855 trading levels is something that is important to note from a swing basis The trading levels of 5830-55 are critical swing levels on the downside to watch out for.

On an immediate basis we can see selling pressure intensifying in case NIFTY Fut breaches 5890 and that would be an ideal point to initiate short trades on break of it. Else this might provide good contrarian pull back trading opportunities.

On the upside NIFTY fur will display positive bias in case it manages to trade above 5935 trading levels.  But until NIFTY fut manages to move above and manages to sustain above 6005 trading levels it will be prudent to take quick long scalping trades.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5955-60  sustaining above which it will target 5990,6030
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5930-35
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5890-95
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5860,5835

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System Performance	May-13
Trading System	Index Smart
Start Date	1st May
End Date	31st May
Starting Cap	50,000
End Capital	68,000
Lots/Trade	1 Lot

Live Account F&O Bill

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NIFTY FUT dips below 5935, But manages a close there. What is in store.

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 5^th June

NIFTY FUT – provided a difficult range bound day to trade but yet just managing to provide a few trading opportunities here and  there. Firstly lets review that for the past few sessions we had mentioned that 5935 is the crucial trading level to watch out for. Markets today opened just below that level and went to make a lower low around the above the swing trading levels of 5890. Which it managed to hold and provide a sharp pull back to 5935 trading levels.

Since this was the support zone to watch out for markets this time once trading below it found resistance there and again dipped on to touch 5900 levels. Today was a classic case of oscillating between to two key swing trading levels and the way it closed pretty much summed up the day.

The fact that we managed to hold on to 5935 on a closing basis holds critical meaning. How is it expected to trade tomorrow. Lets analyze.

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NIFTY FUTURE- 6^th Jun Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT tested the swing levels of 5890 on the downside and also at the same time made a high below the swing levels of 5965 and managed a close around 5935 trading levels which it has managed to hold on to on a closing basis.

Going forward in the coming session the trading level of 5920-65 will prove to be a choppy and in decisive zone where we don’t expect much action. Some direction will only emerge on the clear of this on either side.

On the upside this level of 5960-65 is a hurdle and a clear of that can lead to a test of 5990-6000 all over again. Similarly on the downside a break of 5920 levels will lead to a test of 5890 this time and a breach of that can make NIFTY test swing levels of 5855 levels. Which can be a decisive make or break zone for long term swing.

For the BULLS we may see some real momentum only if NIFTY FUT manages to surface above 6005 levels and that  may signal a reversal in trend.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5960-65  sustaining above which it will target 5990,6030
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5920-25
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5890-95
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5860,5835

NIFTY FUT clings to the critical support zone. Will it be decisively broken?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 4^th June

NIFTY FUT – gave a perfect day to trade to the traders as per the trading levels. Simply trading as per levels would had yielded two good trades. Let review them.

What were the trading levels for this trading session?

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5990-95 

POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5960-65

As traders we also knew that 5935 is a crucial swing support zone, in the morning a long trade opportunity was created once NIFTY FUT managed to move above the 5965 trading levels. This created a trading opportunity to test higher levels upto the Trend decider. Just the perfect recipe for a day trader. High made was at 5994.90… probably a bit of a co incidence ( Just a trend decider) But the fact is that the trading level got respected.

This was the second trade opportunity that was created a contrarian short at those levels or a confirmed short on break of the TREND decider for the downside levels of 5935 and lower.

Idea here is again to trade as per the trading levels and be objective about the trading. We need to strict to the trading levels and combine them with swing support and resistance levels to device the trade plan for the day.

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Are you looking for complete guided trading without any hassle?.. Are you still worried about your trade entries? Are you missing on these turning points entries? How about looking at our points guaranteed services. …... Where to take the next trade? Did you catch the move in the right time?.... Are you still guessing where to trade? Subscribe to our premium calls and leave your trade entry and exit worries to us. 

NIFTY FUTURE- 5^th Jun Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT barely managed to hold on and trade as per the trading levels of 5935  almost marking identical lows below that trading level at above 5920 trading zones.  The fact that it managed to pull back and close above the this trading level goes on to signify how important this level has been swing wise.

On an immediate basis 5925-30 will be a crucial trading level to watch out for and a breach of that can see a slide till 5890 levels and lower. On the upside NIFTY Fut will be resisted on all rise upto 5965 levels and above that while we may not see some momentum but may see NIFTY trading more in a choppy manner.

On a swing basis We may see some real momentum for the BULLS  only if NIFTY FUT manages to surface above 6005 levels and that  may signal a reversal in trend. Swing wise on the downside 5890 will be a crucial level to watch out for. This will be important to watch out for in the coming sessions incase 5935 is breached.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5995-6005  sustaining above which it will target 6035,6065
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5960-65
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5930-35
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5890, 5855