NIFTY FUTURE- Review of previous sessions and Trading Analysis-4th July

Firstly our apologies for having not posted in a while.  i have  been  a little tight with some research work in setting  up a robust system trading set up and enhancements .

Firstly let us do a quick review of the fantastic expiry trade we posted.  I think one sentence can sum it up all : we wrote -  “So to take a low risk entry one should look at sharp pull back trades in rise with stops above 5700 levels”   and also advised to trade for a close above 5600 levels. On expiry day markets marked a high at 5702 and fell nearly 40 odd points from there giving in some good low risk gains.

Coming back to recent moves. Markets marked a high near 5900 and have done a near U turn in the past two sessions correcting near 200 plus points from the highs. Markets are interesting poised at the close today at near 5780 levels. The charts below will convey a lot of levels and how it is important.

NIFTY FUT DAILY CHARTS-3RD JULY 2013

On a swing basis strong resistance is now established at 5900-5930 levels and any pulls backs will be shorted with stops around that zone.  On the downside crucial swing support is just around the low created today at 5750-55 levels and a breach of that can lead to a slide upto 5670 levels and lower.

On an immediate basis hurdle remains at 5800-5820 levels and a pull back to that level is a short opportunity. A clear of that can see a short term trend reversal favoring the bulls. The levels of 5750-55 can be the near term support to and a crack of that should invite fresh shorts. If through the early sessions markets manage to hold these levels then we can see some scalping intraday opportunity.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5815-20  sustaining above which it will target 5840,5865
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5750-55
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5720-25
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5695,5665

NIFTY FUT again marks the swing target at 6190 levels. Will this level sustain. What is the swing projection

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 16^th  May

NIFTY FUT – Yesterday we had mentioned that it will be important for the market to sustain above the 6155-60 trading levels. IN the morning session markets opened just around that trading level and blasted past the trading zone as we mentioned. We also discussed that the upside targets is 6200-6210 trading levels

This is exactly where markets topped out today and paused . Good part to justify the strong up move is that markets managed to hold on to that trading level. We had two strong days of upmove and haven’t seen the trend wilting as of yet by any chance.

Days like these are at times difficult to trade. Do we trade a break out? Or Do we wait for a pull back. It’s a risk reward trade off. For our swing positions since the stops are higher we are not that worried but for intra day trading positions we prefer a lower risk reward ratio. It is then paramount to time the pull back well.

Those are the situations where the trading levels come in very handy.  We got a very good pull back opportunity today going long in dip near the 6170 trading zone. And locking in quick gains in pull backs.

What is the next trading level to watch out for. What is the next break out level for markets to surge further? Read our trading review for the next session.

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NIFTY FUTURE – 17^th  May Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT made a swing high today at 6200 trading levels and closing a shade below that only near the 6180 trading levels.

The upside trading band of 6200-6210 will form as the next crucial intraday and swing resistance together Any sustained close above it this time can propel NIFTY FUT towards the upside trading levels of 6300 and 6350 on the swing basis.

For the immediate trading levels 6160-65 will form as the TREND DECIDER and trading above that market will continue to maintain a positive bias and will attempt to take out the upside levels. At the same time trading below that level will mean that  we can see some some profit booking. But such has been the strength of the break out move that until the swing levels of 6100  are breached we will see some buying support in dips.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6200-6210   sustaining above which it will target 6240,6290
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6160-6165
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 6130-35
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 6110, 6090

Market Review of 3rd April and Analysis for 4th April

NIFTY FUTURE-  Market Review3rd April

NIFTY FUT-  Readers will recall we had mentioned that 5720 level was the zone to watch out for and at the same time 5760 on the upside was a hurdle . Yesterday we saw a break out of the 5720 range to attempt 5760 zones. Today again we saw that level to be attempted. We also had a failed breakout trade above that level where we got trapped too. The trade got hit.

The failure of NIFTY FUT to take out that level was confirmed once 5720 was broken on the downward journey.The worry some part for the BULLS though was for the fact that NIFTY FUT failed to even hold on to 5700 levels and closed below it.

But im sure the swing traders did manage to enjoy a good pull back from our swing support zones of 5630 odd levels where we saw a near 100 points bounce back.

Now that NIFTY FUT has closed below the 5700 levels the mid term mood again turns somber. How to trade the next few sessions? Read on our analysis for the next session.

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 NIFTY FUTURE – 4th April  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed below the crucial support zones of 5700. This despite the fact that we saw a significant option build up around that level.

This will prove as the immediate upside hurdle again. Even if that is cleared all pull backs to 5725 zones will be resisted. Only if we see a confirmed close above that level we will be ensured that the BULLS have a fight back chance.

On the downside NIFTY FUT will have immediate support at 5670 levels and a break of that will ensure NIFTY FUT sees more downside momentum to test the lower support zones of 5640 and lower. BULLS will create some supply again at the5600-5630 zones. Readers will recall that we had identified that level twice and at both occasions markets gave a significant low risk pull back trade. Will we be third time lucky? Well best way to see is if that level is indeed test we wait for a significant move above 5640 to initiate any trades and at the sametime have reversal trades ready.

Automated Technical analysis of key indicators:

Advanced Technical Chart analysis forNIFTY_F1():

----Price and moving averages Analysis----:

NIFTY_F1() has closed below its Short time moving average.

Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, AND below long time moving averages.

The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and neutral in mid-long term.

----Volatility Bands Analysis----:

NIFTY_F1() has closed below the lower band by 5.8%.

Volatility Bands are 26.9% narrower than normal.

The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

-----------MACD signal analysis-----------

Current Statistics

Close: 5,683.300

Change:  -36.600

MACD Value:   10.016

Signal Line:   15.800

Crossovers:

================

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.

The MACD crossed below its signal line 1 period(s) ago.

Since the MACD crossed its moving average, NIFTY_F1's price has decreased   -0.640%

And has ranged from a high of 5,751.000 to a low of 5,666.400

Overbought/Oversold

================

The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.

Divergence

================

There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

---------RSI Signal Analysis---------------

Current Statistics

The current value for the 14 day RSI is   40.835

Tops and Bottoms

================

The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range.

Buy/Sell signals

================

A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.

The last Signal was a buy 43 period(s) ago.

Failure Swings (also known as support or resistance penetrations or breakouts)

============

The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 period(s).  This is bearish.

Divergence

==========

The RSI and price are not diverging.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5700-05   sustaining above which it will target 5725,5755
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5665-5670
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5630-35
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5650,5600,5570

Detailed analysis also posted at www.powertrades.blogspot.com

Capture consistent swing and take high potential trades with our price point analysis and trading levels

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 21^st  Mar

NIFTY FUT – Another stunning day of move is a row. The last few weeks have been a welcome blessing for intra day traders who has been using trend based technical analysis or also simply using our accurate price point analysis.
Few sessions back we wrote that  5860 was the market mid term trend decider levels and swing traders would have good potential trading shorts with downside targets upto 5650 levels.
Today markets marked that low exactly around 5650 levels. Giving away near 200 points gains in a few trading sessions.
From an intraday point of view we mentioned that the BEARS LAST STAND point of the day as 5760 levels. Markets failed to clear that level in a sustained basis and marked a top just above that. But once it failed to clear that zone on a sustained basis it was clear that markets may be headed downwards. The last remaining cog was to break through the 5700 levels and once that was broken on a second attempt the downside was pretty apparent.
This kind of volatility offers a lot of trading opportunities even on an intraday basis.  We took a short in the opening session that went well. Then got caught in the long breakout which was a failed trade but the clincher was the short trade taken below 5735 then that yielded massive gains. This kind of opportunity is quite different from the months of Jan  and Feb when we had no trading opportunities during many days

 NIFTY FUT just went on and closed  at a critical juncture just above our swing support zones. How are markets poised to trade at these levels. Read our analysis for the next session

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NIFTY FUTURE –22^nd   Mar  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT closed at a crucial support levels, these are key support levels  near 5600-5630 zones . Markets closed a shade above that. At this stage now the risk reward ratio is skewed against favour of shorts. We had a good downswing from the higher levels.
 From an intraday perspective NIFTY FUT will face immediate hurdle now at 5700 levels and trading above that can scale up to 5730 odd levels. On the  downside there is a swing support plus an intraday support zones near 5630-5600 levels. Intraday traders may look to take low risk pull back trades above 5670 odd levels. While the market momentum is still in favor of shorts it will be prudent to watch out how markets trade at these levels.

A break of 5600 zones can mean a downside potential of another 150 odd points in the index future , where we can see  a test of next swing support levels all the way upto 5450 levels.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator are  trading negative and will continue to hold so until it trades below 5700  levels. The mid term momentum indicator are also negative now and will hold so until NIFTY FUT trades below 5765 levels

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5700-05  sustaining above which it will target 5730,5755
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5665-70
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5630-35
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5605,5475

Markets back at 5900, Where is it headed Next? Read the Detailed analysis

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 7^th Mar

NIFTY FUT –   Another fantastic day in a row , in a rare occasion we have see the markets giving such strong moves in a such a short span and that’s pretty welcome amongst the swing trading and intraday trading community.
Yesterday we mentioned that NIFTY FUT has key levels at 5825 and trading above that can hit the swing levels of 5860 levels.
Look at how the markets spanned out once NIFTY FUT managed to sustain above that level( Also our TREND DECIDER of the day) it managed to challenge our BEARS LAST STAND point at 5860 levels. This also was our swing hurdle as well. To quote exactly what we wrote “At the same time on the upside if now NIFTY FUT manages to break above the 5860 levels that will be deemed as a strong reversal sign for the market.”

Look at the strong movement witnessed once that level was cleared , NIFTY FUT blasted to hit the next trading levels of 5900 in no time at all.
We has also mentioned that there is a congestion zone at 5910 levels this is exactly where the rally paused. Hope traders took the trading opportunity to book in massive gains. We had a solid run with our smartsignals too, as that is designed to catch volatility and strong trends. Clocking in more than 800 points in total in last few trades.
But that’s  not what the beauty is, the satisfaction more comes from the fact that we, our readers and traders  stuck to our convictions on both occasions when common sentiment challenged our belief and we collectively reaped in good gains.
During Budget day common sentiment called for a rally but we went short just as per our trading levels. And Recent up move in last few days when common sentiments said markets are in a bearish phase we stuck to basic technical analysis and levels and again came out winners. It’s a pat in the back for all of us.

NIFTY FUT closed at a very crucial  level of 5900 levels. Its time now to sit back and  introspect a longer time analysis again and take an informed decision for the next course of the market. Read our detailed analysis for tomorrow.

NIFTY FUTURE – 8^th  Mar  Trading Guide

Before we start out I  just want to again drill this thing again within our traders that when we talk about technical analysis there is no place for emotions. Its an informed decision based on probabilities, patterns and risk reward ratios. We don’t have to go to common sentiments to find an opinion.
Sample this, When markets were making highs in Jan 2013, did any analyst come out and project that 6120 is a hurdle? We wrote about that level long before it tested , check our blog posts.
When we saw the budget day crash and a few days before it too. We kept on writing that 5630 zones are strong swing support and they did deserve low risk contrarian entries. Did any analyst ask to do that after the budget? We stuck our neck out and did that.
And again the point is not that we are correct all the time, but an informed pattern based decision was taken rather than following common emotions. Secondly the conviction to trade the plan was equally important.

Coming back to NIFTY let us quickly review how the options data have changed over the week. Here is a snapshot of options data early this week  and the snapshot of options data today for comparison

NIFTY OPTIONS SNAPSHOT-5TH MARCH

NIFTY OPTIONS SNAPSHOT-7TH MARCH

If we review the two options charts now there are three evident take away: The 5700 and 5800 PE accumulation have increased significantly justifying the fact that they are emerging as support zones from a series perspective and thirdly the 6000 CE accumulation has decreased too, meaning that the hurdle in that space may be decreasing but still there in  a significant manner. So does 6000 also mean anything else?

Let us go back and see the weekly charts one more time, we reviewed the charts some time early this week.

NIFTY FUT WEEKLY CHARTS-7TH MAR

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5860 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5790 zones.

As we see from the weekly charts, this week charts by taking out the 5860 levels have completely engulfed the previous week, Although the volumes are still lower on the pull back candle by a significant margin.

Second cause of concern is that if we review the long term trend line that we see which was breached  4 weeks back. The trend line resistance now also stands at 6000 levels.   Combing these few observations 6000 emerges as a strong swing hurdle now and we need to watch out for that in the coming sessions in a swing basis on the upside.

On an intraday basis now, NIFTY FUT faces immediate  resistance at 5915 levels and clearing that wil go on to target 5940 levels. In case NIFTY FUT manages to trade above 5940 as well we can see a test of the swing resistance zones of 5975-6000 levels. Which will be a definite hurdle to be watched out for. In case we manage to hit that level, it will be advised to lock in gains and wait for the next leg of market directions.

On the downside NIFTY FUT will face good immediate support at 5855-60 levels and until it trades above that level all intra day corrections will be bought into. In case that level is breached NIFTY FUT will slide down quickly to test the 5830 odd zones.

Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5860 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5790 zones.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5910-15 sustaining above which it will target 5940,5975
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5860-65
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5825-30
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5800, 5760






                                                                           

Why 5650 was such and important level to Buy?

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 6^th Mar

NIFTY FUT –   While the pull back continues an pretty predictable trading day for our readers and traders. Yesterday we discussed and wrote that the immediate hurdle for NIFTY FUT comes at 5830 odd levels . This was also marked as the Bears LAST STAND POINT of the day meaning trading above that level NIFTY FUT will be in control of the BULLS on an intraday basis,
This is exactly what happened once NIFTY FUT in the morning session managed to pull back and trade above the 5830 odd zones.
We had also identified the next target was 5855 , NIFTY FUT managed to pull back and make a high just around that level.
The fact that 5860 is a swing resistance and any pull back till that zone will be resisted made sure that the momentum was not significant today and NIFTY FUT stayed in a small trading range.
NIFTY FUT closed below the crucial swing levels of 5860. This will be a key level to watch out for , what are trading levels if that is cleared? Read our analysis for the next session

 NIFTY FUTURE – 7^th  Mar  Trading Guide
NIFTY FUT –  Today the pull back was significant and important from a perspective that now we have done a complete U turn from the crash that we witnessed on the budget day. Our readers and traders will recall amidst all mayhem we had advised our traders to buy near 5650 levels as a low risk opportunity. Now the reward from those levels stand at 4 times in a period of 3 trading sessions. This is the beauty to trade with clearly defined levels instead of going by news and predictions.

Nevertheless despite this 5860 is the key level to watch out for at this time Either it is a good time to book some gains here and wait for the next leg of market direction to emerge or at max trail your swing positions with tight stops below 5820 odd levels on a closing basis.

On the downside 5820-25 will form as the immediate support zone and in case NIFTY FUT managed to move below it we will again go on to test the 5790 odd trading zones.
At the same time on the upside if now NIFTY FUT manages to break above the 5860 levels that will be deemed as a strong reversal sign for the market.
In case it manages to clear that zone immediate hurdle we will go on to test the 5890 odd trading levels . There is a trading zone congestion at 5890-5910 levels and above that we have a potential to test the major swing levels of 5980 on the upside.

We got a few questions as to how we got the buy level of 5650 so accurately. I think we gave a hint of that already once we posted the weekly charts. More over even before correction happened we have been discussing 5630 as a key swing level for the long term uptrend.
If you go back and look at the weekly charts posted a few sessions back , the fact that we were at a such a critical juncture that it offered  a very high probability low risk pull back trade since we were testing trading retracements levels of more that a year and half. These are the times when as a trader we need to take calculated low risk entries and reversals below.
The level of 5630 odd is a culmination of multiple retracements plus a long term swing accumulation zone. Hence that offered a higher chance of low risk entry.



Swing indicator wise the short term momentum indicator remains positive above 5820 levels. . The mid term momentum indicators are now positive as well and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades above 5690 zones.



Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5860-65 sustaining above which it will target 5890,5910,5950
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5825-30
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5690-5800
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5730,5700

Review of 1st Feb and Update for 3rd Feb 2013

NIFTY FUTURE – Review of 1^st Feb

NIFTY FUT – For 1^St of Feb we had mentioned that the BEARS LAST point of the day was near 6075 levels.  Let us review how the chart played out. In the morning session NIFTY FUT opened gap up. There on that same level tend to act as a support . Specially on the next day of expiry because of underlying valuation difference it is important to watch out for the early session play.
Once the key levels of 6065 was breached markets drifted downwards and eventually went to test the first support levels of 6045 and eventually drifted downwards to test the levels of 6025, where it made an exact low above that zone.
On Friday we made it clear that 6025 was the critical support level this is exactly where the markets halted and paused. 
So how should we have traded that level? Well one clear indication was to go short below the BEARS last stand point once that level was breached with the stops near day’s higher range or lower.
NIFTY FUT gave another successive close below 6060 levels? So what’s in store for the next session and the coming month. Read our detailed analysis with well explained charts.

NIFTY FUTURE – 4^th Feb  Trading Guide

NIFTY FUT –  managed a second successive close below the 6060 levels and also at the same time managed to hold on to the 6025 levels.
As is evident from these two levels and our analysis was again spot on in identifying these levels. So for the coming sessions 6025 will form at the immediate support to watch out. But a word of worry is we have barely managed a close below the ascending trend line that we discussed few session back. See the Charts below

NIFTY FUT 3RD FEB

On light of this it will be even more important that markets respects these lows levels created. If we review the charts we have just managed a close below the trend lines. On Monday a confirmation of this will be visible if we see markets trading below the support zones . A false break will be confirmed only if NIFTY FUT manages to surface above the 6060 levels.
Immediate hurdle above that will still be at 6095 and expect NIFTY FUT to continue to trade listless in this trading range of 6020 on the downside and 6095 on the upside.
On the downside a breach of 6025 this time should see a sure test of 6000 levels and a breach below that can see NIFTY FUT going into mid term weak trend to test lower levels of 5960. For the continence of the readers we have plotted the key levels on the charts.
Now how to trade the coming session. Stay neutral in this range of 6060-6025 and look for a break out or a breakdown trade outside this range. In case of a gap up scenario above 6060 high risk traders can go short if NIFTY FUT manages to sustain below 6060

Swing indicator wise the short term indicators are negative and will continue to hold so until NIFTY FUT trades below 6065.Mid  term momentum indicators are also neutral at this trading level, they will swing to positive above 6120. This will be negative once NIFTY FUT trades and moves below 5995 levels.

As for trading today the levels are as follows:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6060-65 sustaining above which it will target 6095,6115,6135
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6020-25
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5990-6000
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5960,5940