NIFTY FUT tests Critical Averages on the downside. How to trade it at these levels

NIFTY FUTURE- review of 29^th July and Update for 30^th July

NIFTY Fut today cracked through 5900 trading levels today closing at 5870 odd zones. What is important about this level is that this is exactly the 100 day moving average for Nifty Fut. If not for anything just another psychological level for the markets.

 On the downside a break of this level can lead to a test of 5845 on the downside and below that Nifty Fut can slide to 5810-15 levels where it might find some swing support and show signs of pull back and profit booking for shorts.

A crack of that level on swing basis can lead to another leg of downside move.

On the upside immediate hurdle lies at 5900-05 levels and only clearing that we can see a positive bias in the markets. Until it trades below it expect bears to be in control and short on rise will be a preferred option.

Trading above 5905 NIFTY fut can head to 5930-35 levels on the upside where it will face severe resistance and may not just cross in a jiffy. Swing bulls will only be back above that levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5930-35  sustaining above which it will target 5965,6005
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5900-05
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5870-75
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5845,5810

NIFTY FUT Are You capitalizing on the volatility- With price point analysis

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 24th  July and Analysis for 25^th July

Another massive gap in the opening session. How to deal with such gaps. The questions that crop up at the opening session for traders is to take a decision whether to follow the trend of the gap or look for a low risk counter move. Both are lucrative trading opportunities. In that case how to analyze in a quick move on which trade to take.

Well the answer simply lies in price point analysis and combining them with the trading levels.  We had mentioned in the previous session that 6075 will be the key level on the downside. Once markets opened and in the opening session it traded below 6075 where opening high was created at 6059 levels it was a signal where that level can be used as a stoploss for shorts and reversal above.

We had mentioned that the downside targets were up to 6005 levels all levels got done. But the star trade was with BankNifty futures which yielded near 150-200 points in a single session.

NIFTY FUT tested the levels of 5975 on the downside and managed to hold  that level witnessing a marginal pull back to close just above 6005 levels.

So what is the potential trade tomorrow.

6005-6000 will be the trend decider in true sense and markets will display a bullish nature if it holds to trade above that or a bearish nature below it. On the upside 6025 will form the immediate hurdle and clearing markets can move to 6045 levels and higher.

On the downside a below 6000 levels markets can retest 5975 levels and below that can slide all the way to 5930 levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6045  sustaining above which it will target 6075,6110
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6000-05
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5975-70
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5935,5895

NIFTY FUT Headed for Interesting Times ahead

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 23^rd  July and Analysis for 24^th July

Yesterday we discussed that the key trading level on the upside on swing basis remains at 6075 and trading above that can head to 6110 levels. Today we saw markets gap up and move above 6075 in opening sessions. Once markets sustained above that it acted as a support and markets went to head and make a high just below the swing levels at 6107. This NIFTY FUT failed to cross but found multiple support in the 6070-75 zones to manage to sustain and close above it.

This will form as the support in coming sessions and any move below that will make the short term bears active from an intraday point of view. Below that level markets can move to 6035 levels or lower.

On the upside a clear of 6110-15 can mean a massive swing break out and can pull NIFTY FUT all the way up to 6220 trading levels.

On an immediate basis a clear of 6115 can take NIFTY up to 6135 levels and higher.

Why this is interesting is NIFTY today traded in a closed range and a move on either side would mean good high potential low risk opportunities for traders both intraday and swing players.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6115-20  sustaining above which it will target 6135,6165,6220
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6100-05
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 6070-75
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 6035,6005

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 22nd July and Analysis for 23 rd July

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of 22^nd July and Analysis for 23 rd July

Dear all back after a long hiatus. Was travelling for a while and had taken a good break with family. Exciting news is that we have also been able to test our systems in complete automated mode over two different set up infrastructures.

Nifty fut almost created identical top today as yesterday and failed to clear that trading level.  The daily candle formed is not impressive enough and until the highs are not taken out the BULLS will again see some testing times.

On an immediate basis the Intraday trend decider will be at 6035-40 trading levels and clearing that level we may see more upsides to test the 6075 trading levels which will be a key hurdle on a swing basis.

Similarly on the downside sustained trading below that zones   can lead to a test of 6000-05 levels. On the downside.

Below that a movement below that may lead to a test of 5975 on the downside on a swing basis. On the upside swing wise a clear of 6075 can surge NIFTY all the way up to 6110 and higher levels.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 6070-75  sustaining above which it will target 6090,6114
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 6035-40
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 6000-05
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5990,5970

NIFTY FUTURE- Review of previous sessions and Trading Analysis-4th July

Firstly our apologies for having not posted in a while.  i have  been  a little tight with some research work in setting  up a robust system trading set up and enhancements .

Firstly let us do a quick review of the fantastic expiry trade we posted.  I think one sentence can sum it up all : we wrote -  “So to take a low risk entry one should look at sharp pull back trades in rise with stops above 5700 levels”   and also advised to trade for a close above 5600 levels. On expiry day markets marked a high at 5702 and fell nearly 40 odd points from there giving in some good low risk gains.

Coming back to recent moves. Markets marked a high near 5900 and have done a near U turn in the past two sessions correcting near 200 plus points from the highs. Markets are interesting poised at the close today at near 5780 levels. The charts below will convey a lot of levels and how it is important.

NIFTY FUT DAILY CHARTS-3RD JULY 2013

On a swing basis strong resistance is now established at 5900-5930 levels and any pulls backs will be shorted with stops around that zone.  On the downside crucial swing support is just around the low created today at 5750-55 levels and a breach of that can lead to a slide upto 5670 levels and lower.

On an immediate basis hurdle remains at 5800-5820 levels and a pull back to that level is a short opportunity. A clear of that can see a short term trend reversal favoring the bulls. The levels of 5750-55 can be the near term support to and a crack of that should invite fresh shorts. If through the early sessions markets manage to hold these levels then we can see some scalping intraday opportunity.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5815-20  sustaining above which it will target 5840,5865
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5750-55
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5720-25
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5695,5665

How to trade the Expiry Day. Low risk trading ideas for Expiry day

NIFTY FUTURE- Review and Trading Analysis-27th June

NIFTY FUT –   Firstly well isn’t market following a pattern pretty much in line with what we discussed. Refer to our blog charts previously posted. We had marked that the downside targets are near 5580 zones. NIFTY swing wise just marked that low for two consecutive sessions but yet managed to hold onto it on a closing basis. It will be critical to watch out how markets trade around that level and it can provide a very low risk trade opportunity on either side for swing traders. But advise would be to watch out for the expiry to pass by until we see a convincing move.

Since we are looking at expiry the volatility provides some fun trading ideas specially keeping options positions in mind. So let us review what are the option as of today.

The best way to analyze option data is just to have a look at the option accumulation chart. One picture gives in multiple data points in a single view.

June 2013 series-Option OI Data-26th June

<charts attached at www.powertrades.blogspot.com>

So the most evident thing with this chart is the huge CE accumulation at 5700 zones . Also we see significant and distributed PE accumulation at 5500 and 5600 levels. Now our expiry strategy needs to be treat this accumulation has to hold for tomorrow and use price point analysis to find out potential trading zones

Based on this our boundary points more or less are 5570-80 zones on the downside and 5700 on the upside. So to take a low risk entry one should look at sharp pull back trades in rise with stops above 5700 levels and also pull back on upside to trade for a close above 5600 levels. Probably with 5550 as stops. This trade can be taken in sharp dips.

Dear remember expiry day is risky hence risk lower than your usual quantity. Even if you don’t get favorable levels its perfectly fine to stay out and watch. Trade safe

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 5620-25  sustaining above which it will target 5655,5675
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5575-80
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5550-55
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5530,5505

Elliot wave and price projections at its classical best. What are the next projections?

NIFTY FUTURE- Review and Trading Analysis-21st June

NIFTY FUT –  marked the classical  Elliot wave and price projection reversal in the recent downmove.

While many traders would had earned trading shorts it is to take a worthy note on how Elliot wave projections gave an entry signal at much higher levels and how our traders capitalized on them big time.

Readers will recall that we posted the charts few days back (Refer to our blog chart analysis for 17^th June). We mentioned that NIFTY FUT has completed wave 3 and was marking a retracement on wave 4.

The beauty was that the wave 4 topped out exactly at 61.8% retracement levels giving an much earlier entry before the crash happened.

Yes the FED stand on QE made sure that global markets tanked big time and Indian markets were no exception too. Yes this help cover a huge range of wave 5 move in a single session 2. No denying the fact.  What we were expecting as a gradual downside move was largely covered today.

Now how price point analysis confirmed this. Refer to the same blog post. We had mentioned that while NIFTY FUT witnessed a strong island reversal pattern we mentioned that 5870 is the key hurdle on upside and only a clear of that will confirm as strong upside reversal.

Markets during the course of the week made a high of 5867.5; exactly below that level and failed to clear that zone on the upside. This confirmed a respect of wave 4 retracement too when 5835 was breached on closing basis.

Now where are markets headed from here? As we say one picture is worth many words and they always act as a ready visual reference to your trading.

NIFTY FUT CHARTS-20TH JUN CLOSING- SWING AND INTRADAY PROJECTIONS

Now Fut closed exactly at the first target of wave5 at 5640 trading levels. Below that the next swing projection is 5580 and if that is breached on a sustained basis we are looking at hitting near 5400 trading levels.

On the upside  On the upside swing wise immediate hurdle will be 5690-5700 trading levels and a clear of that will indicate some sort of reversal only.

From an intraday point of view 5640 will also act as a TREND DECIDER and sustaining below it shorts will be active again. Intraday reversal zone is 5670 levels  on the upside. On the downside expect support to emerge out at 5580 levels and a breach of that will result in fresh shorts.

Trading levels for the day:

POWERTRADE BEARS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY ----- 567075  sustaining above which it will target 5695,5730
POWERTRADE TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY ------- 5635-40
POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY------- 5600-05
Breakdown and sustaining below POWERTRADE BULLS LAST STAND POINT OF THE DAY will open target for support of ---- 5580,5535